After nine years with the Raiders, Derek Carr is the new starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints — a franchise that’s still struggling to find their QB of the future since Drew Brees retired three years ago. Can the 32-year-old Carr reclaim his former glory and finish as a top-12 fantasy football QB in 2023?

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Derek Carr’s Recent Seasons

Carr’s best fantasy season with the Raiders arguably took place in 2016, when he was the overall QB11. In fact, the Raiders haven’t had anyone finish better than QB9 in the last 20 seasons.

Carr can’t take the blame for two decades of relative fantasy futility. But in fantasy leagues, he’s come to represent a strange combination of underrated and overrated. Based on preseason ADP, he’s often outperformed expectations. Rarely by a lot, but in Superflex or 2QB leagues, fantasy managers take notice.

Still, Carr’s remained a painfully low-ceiling asset — someone you start on a bye week in 1QB leagues, hoping he can eke out 16+ points. Last year, though, he averaged his fewest fantasy points per game since 2018. Not a good sign.

We’ll never know if a healthy Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller could have helped propel Carr into the top 10. They missed a combined 15 games, forcing their veteran QB to direct almost all of his downfield attention onto Davante Adams and 29-year-old journeyman Mack Hollins. It was often almost unquestionably the league’s thinnest receiving corps, led by one all-world receiver and one middling starter, and not much else behind them.

Fantasy production aside, one could claim that Carr’s coming off his worst campaign since his rookie year, including his lowest completion percentage since 2014 and his worst interception rate. Among the 40 QBs with at least 15 red-zone pass attempts last season, Carr was 37th with a 42.4% completion rate.

Is this the dawn of a decline, or a mere blip for a guy who — age-wise — is still in his prime? We’re about to find out.

Derek Carr’s 2023 Expectations

The Saints are similar to the Raiders in some ways but with a better defense. New Orleans possesses a strong backfield when Alvin Kamara is active, as well as a strong receiving corps when Michael Thomas is active. These two guys were once among the best at their respective positions. If both rebound in 2023, it would do wonders for Carr’s fantasy numbers. But if they don’t, there are enough headwinds to keep Carr outside the top 20.

First, the Saints didn’t make meaningful improvements at receiver this offseason. Rashid Shaheed will try to work his magic again behind Chris Olave and Thomas. Beyond them, sixth-round rookie A.T. Perry will compete with James Washington (who hasn’t caught a pass since 2021) and Tre’Quan Smith.

The backfield additions of Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller signal a potentially sizeable commitment to the running game, including near the goal line. Considering how much Carr struggled near the end zone last year, perhaps the Saints are prepared to pound the ball when they get close. Again, not a good sign for Carr.

Also, Carr operates better as a game manager than as a come-from-behind specialist. The Raiders have yielded the 13th-most points or worse in each of his nine NFL campaigns. Despite throwing more than most starting quarterbacks in the last two seasons, he’s been a middling fantasy option.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has leaned a lot more on their defense. As a result, they’ve been among the lowest-volume passing teams in the league for several years.

Additionally, Carr averaged the eighth-highest average time to throw last season. Now he’s shifting to a team on which Andy Dalton had the sixth-lowest amount of time to throw. How will Carr adjust if the offensive line can’t protect him as well as the Raiders did? And/or will the team adjust Carr’s approach to minimize risk-taking?

It’s a troubling fantasy situation for another supposed fix in New Orleans. Carr is more of a Band-Aid than a franchise quarterback at this stage. The Saints are pushing for perhaps one more playoff run during the Kamara-Thomas era, while the NFC South title remains anyone’s to claim.

Carr’s job is to minimize turnovers and let his offensive playmakers and defense do the rest. Suddenly posting some of the best numbers of his career seems like a longshot. His odds of cracking the top 12 are slim at best.