When it comes to the 2023 NFL win totals and betting odds, there are not a huge amount of surprising numbers that stand out. However, that does not mean there is no potential value to be found; it is just a case of identifying it. Let’s take a look at the current NFL win totals and odds, as well as which lines our analysts believe could present the best value.

Live NFL Win Totals and Odds

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of June 26.

NFL Win Totals Predictions

Wingo: Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins (-145 on Caesars) and Cincinnati Bengals over 11.5 wins (+105 on Caesars)

When it comes to win totals, go with what you know. There’s a reason every year in the 2000s the Patriots and Colts were always putting up double-digit wins: they had the best quarterbacks.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. So for me, the obvious choices are Kansas City and Cincinnati because, last time I checked, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are still employed by these two teams. Mahomes has led his team to host the AFC Championship Game every single year he’s been a starter. And every season Burrow has been healthy, the Bengals have been there as well.

Now some may ask why not Josh Allen or Justin Herbert or Aaron Rodgers then? Well, Herbert plays for the Chargers…who would have to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs in that division. The AFC East suddenly might just be the toughest division in football, which means the Bills, Jets, AND Dolphins may be beating each other up all season. Go with what you know, and we know where Mahomes leads the Chiefs and where Burrow leads the Bengals.

Bearman: New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (+105 on DraftKings) 

Honestly didn’t think I’d end up on the Saints of all teams, but after seeing Chris Fallica’s write-up for Dennis Allen as a Coach of the Year pick, I gave the schedule a look. Hear me out: They play in one of the two worst divisions in football and are the +120 favorite to win the NFC South. A 4-2 record against the Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers is conservative, considering they are favorites.

New Orleans also plays all four teams in the AFC South, arguably the worst division in football. Let’s give them another conservative 2-2 vs. the Jags, Titans, Colts, and Texans; 3-1 is quite possible.

In the NFC, the Saints get the North and should be able to go 2-2. With a very conservative 8-6 there, they’d have to go 2-1 against the Giants, Rams, and Pats. All winnable.

Early game lines have the Saints favored in 11 of 17 games, a one-point dog in three more, and an underdog of no more than three points in any game. I did this exercise with the spread last year and deemed the 9.5 for Philly to be the strap. They won the first eight and 14 of 17. Just saying.

BJ: Philadelphia Eagles over 11.5 wins (-110 on DraftKings)

Rarely does a Super Bowl participant get better the next offseason. But Philly pulled it off, thanks to a still-ascending youthful corps, savvy veteran acquisitions, and an impressive haul in the NFL Draft. Who cares that they have one of the NFL’s toughest schedules?

After winning 14 games last year, their three most imposing contests will take place on the road vs. the Patriots, Cowboys, and Chiefs. Even if they lose all three, they’ll remain comfortably above the 11.5-win threshold.

Katz: Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins (+100 on DraftKings)

I was very surprised to see this slightly juiced toward the over. Eight wins is nearly a .500 season. That is a mighty ask from a team largely devoid of talent starting a rookie quarterback. Even if we assume the Panthers win at home over the Texans, Colts, and Bucs, they have several road games almost certain to be losses.

Games against the Seahawks, Lions, Dolphins, Saints, and Jaguars will be tough to win. They also have home dates against the Vikings and Packers. That’s seven projected losses right there. To go over this number, they’d have to win all but two of their remaining games. I just don’t see it happening.

Which NFL Team Could Be the Biggest Surprise in 2023?

Wingo: Atlanta Falcons over 8.5 wins (-130 on Caesars)

If you’re looking for a team to take a flyer on, why not Atlanta? The entire NFC South is in flux. Whatever Desmond Ridder is going to be, we might see the best version of him this season. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and now rookie RB Bijan Robinson are at Ridder’s disposal.

Arthur Smith got the Falcons job after a great run at OC in Tennessee, and he finally has enough weapons on offense to be creative. Atlanta could really surprise some teams this season.

Bearman: Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins (-105 on DraftKings)

Listen, this team is too talented to be a five-win team like last year. Two years ago, the Rams won a Super Bowl. Yes, the team is different, but there is still talent there in Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald, all of who got injured in 2022. If healthy, there are seven wins out there. The Rams play the Cardinals twice, Giants, Washington, Browns, Steelers, Saints, and Colts. If healthy and with Sean McVay, Los Angeles can be a surprise team out there.

BJ: Chicago Bears over 7.5 wins (-110 on DraftKings)

I keep going back and forth on who could realistically win the NFC North. The Lions seem the best-positioned after winning eight of their final 10 games last season, due in part to a massive defensive turnaround that, if it continues into this year, could push that unit into the league’s top 10.

But in terms of best turnarounds, the Bears are primed for a significant jump after last season’s three-win campaign. They had one of the best offseasons possible; unloading their No. 1 overall pick was a masterclass in expediting their rebuild a year ahead of schedule.

Katz: Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins (-105 on DraftKings)

Call me crazy, but I’m kind of “in” on the Rams this season. After all, they’re just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Health is obviously a big concern, but by all accounts, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are healthy.

The Rams won 12 games in the 2021 season. Although they do have a tough draw this year facing the NFC East and AFC North, at their best, they are good enough to beat anyone. I’m not saying the Rams are a lock to bounce back, but out of all the teams with low projected win totals, the Rams have the best shot at beating theirs by multiple wins.

Which NFL Team Has the Highest Win Total?

We currently have three teams tied for the highest projected NFL win total in 2023. Those three teams are the Bengals, Chiefs, and Eagles. That is hardly surprising news, given that those were three of the final four teams in last year’s postseason, and two of them competed in the Super Bowl. Of those three teams, the Eagles have the most juice toward the over at -155.

Behind those three teams are the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. The 49ers may very well also have a win total of 11.5 right now if there wasn’t so much certainty over their QB situation for next season.

Which NFL Team Has the Lowest Win Total?

Heading into the final week of June, the Arizona Cardinals have the lowest projected NFL win total in 2023. With uncertainty over when Kyler Murray may return, a new head coach, and a seeming lack of talent in key positions, it is not a major surprise that the Cardinals find themselves at the bottom of the table.

What is perhaps more of a surprise is that with a projected win total of just 4.5, the Cardinals are two full games below the next lowest teams, the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Los Angeles Rams. However, the Cardinals’ odds are juiced slightly to the over, while the Texans are juiced slightly to the under.