The NFL MVP betting odds do not make for surprising reading, with the QB position dominating the top of the board. Not only that, but the top four spots are occupied by quarterbacks of teams expected to be pushing for a Super Bowl berth. Given that 15 of the last 16 awards have been won by the position, and only once in that time has a QB of a team with less than 12 wins taken home the award, the top contenders make a ton of sense.

Let’s take a look at the current NFL MVP award odds, as well as both predictions and longshot selections from PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, our Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting and Fantasy Analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz, and FOX Sports Chris “The Bear” Fallica.

Live NFL MVP Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of June 26, 2023

NFL MVP Predictions

All of the analysis below is from June 14, 2023.

Wingo: Any conversations about MVP has to begin with Patrick Mahomes (+650, Caesars). He showed last year he can do more than anybody else with less than anybody else. Leading the league in passing yards and TDs and setting the single-season combined yardage record AFTER losing Tyreek Hill is where any discussion of MVP must begin.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica: The biggest story of the offseason was Aaron Rodgers (+1600, FanDuel) being traded to the Jets. It will continue to be a huge story, and if the Jets, who won seven games last year with some of the worst QB play in the league out of Zach Wilson and Mike White, happen to improve on that win total and make the playoffs under Rodgers, well you know what the narrative is going to be.

Given the Jets start with Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and Kansas City, a good start will mean that number on Rodgers will plummet quickly, meaning the best number likely could come now.

Bearman: Mahomes is going to be the popular pick, and deservingly so. I’ll probably have a ticket on him as well, but for this exercise, I am going to go with Jalen Hurts (+800).

He was the favorite before hurting his shoulder last season and very well could’ve won it had he stayed healthy and didn’t miss Weeks 16 and 17. We saw what he could do in the Super Bowl on his own, and the Eagles have added even more pieces to a team that finished with the best record last year. If he stays healthy and plays all 17 games, the sky is the limit.

BJ: It wasn’t long ago that many prognosticators (and Eagles fans) questioned if Jalen Hurts (+800) was a franchise-caliber quarterback. As the fifth quarterback selected in 2020, he joined the league as a work-in-progress. Three years later, he’s one of the best offensive players, period. Continued development around an extraordinarily talented offense easily could propel him to 4,500+ passing yards, 30+ passing TDs, along with his customary elite rushing. In other words, as great as he is, we haven’t seen him at his best, which is scary.

Katz: Mahomes has been the league’s most valuable player since 2018. Much like LeBron James pretty much every year from 2005-2020, he should win the award. But voters seem to experience award fatigue.

Jalen Hurts was all set to capitalize on that before a shoulder injury cost him two games and the award. Hurts now has an even stronger supporting cast and has fully established himself as a top-five quarterback in the league. At +800, Hurts is the pick.

NFL MVP Sleepers and Longshots

Wingo: Jared Goff (+4000, Caesars) and Russell Wilson (+4500, Caesars). This could be a transcendent year for the Detroit Lions, and Goff has the weapons around him to make an interesting run. And wouldn’t it be fascinating to see Russell Wilson enter the conversation after never even getting a single MVP vote all those years in Seattle, now that he’s got Sean Payton to rejuvenate him?

Fallica: With the 49ers unsettled at QB, the offense will run through Christian McCaffrey (+20000, FanDuel) and Deebo Samuel. It’s unlikely a running back will win the award, but McCaffrey is so dynamic, and we saw what he was capable of last year when healthy in San Francisco when he easily could have won Comeback Player of the Year. If the Niners survive without Brock Purdy early on, CMC will be a big reason why.

Bearman: It’s hard to find anyone outside the +2000 range that you’d love for MVP, but I am going to agree with Trey here. The Lions are set up to have a great season, and if they do, a big IF, Jared Goff (+4000, Caesars), would be in line to steal the award.

40-1 wins have been found with Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Mahomes in 2018 (before they were household names), so if the Lions don’t do Lions stuff and actually perform to their capability, +4000 would be a nice ticket.

BJ: Last season, A.J. Brown (+15000) had one of the quietest brilliant receiving campaigns in modern NFL history. On a dominant team with so many heroes, he was somehow frequently overshadowed despite posting a ridiculous 88-1,496-11 receiving line. Entering his age-26 season, Brown is locked in with the still-ascending Jalen Hurts. We shouldn’t be surprised if Brown hits 100-1,650-13, which would put him squarely (and more than deservedly) in the MVP conversation.

Katz: For a true longshot to win this award, he would need to be capable of an outlier touchdown year, while his team wins more games than expected. There may be some residual reluctance amongst voters to give any sort of praise to Deshaun Watson, but we’ve seen him play at an MVP level before.

If he can return to that level and the Browns win 12+ games, Deshaun Watson (+3000) has as good of a shot as anyone. At those odds, he’s worth the stab.

Recent Risers and Fallers

The biggest change over the course of the past few months has been Justin Fields MVP odds. In early February, Fields was as high as +3000, but that has now roughly halved to  +1400 on DraftKings. While most other players have fluctuated but stayed reasonably constant, Fields has seen consistent movement.

With the Bears’ moves in free agency, plus the addition of DJ Moore at wide receiver, Fields’ odds dropped into the +2000 region. A solid draft class has now seen those odds fall even further to make Fields the most substantial riser or faller of anyone in terms of recent MVP odds.

Who Is the Favorite To Win the MVP?

It’s no real surprise to see that Mahomes (+700) is the favorite to win the MVP award. Mahomes took home the award for the second time last season, and coming off a second Super Bowl winner, his stock could not be much higher right now. However, he’s by no means a run-away favorite, with Joe Burrow (+750), Hurts, and Josh Allen (both +800) all marginally behind him.