The 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year sports betting odds have an intriguing look to them thanks to the shocking events of Jan. 2, 2023. While that has left a clear favorite among the potential winners this week, there are still some intriguing options to be found among the candidates.

In this article, we will examine the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds for 2023 and look at the predictions and potential longshot option recommendations from our analyst panel. Among our analysts this week are PFN’s Chief Content Officer David Bearman, betting and fantasy analysts Jason Katz and BJ Rudell, as well as guest analyst, FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.

Live NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of June 21, 2023.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions

Fallica: If Damar Hamlin (-500) decides to try and return and steps foot on the field, he wins.

Bearman: It’s hard to argue against Damar Hamlin (-500) here, as Fallica is right. If he comes back from near death on the field to play again, the award is over. If you don’t want to lay -500 and think Hamlin doesn’t make it back, the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp (+2500), is as solid of a pick out there. He would’ve likely won it again last year if he didn’t get a season-ending injury and could be up for it again this year.

Katz: At -500, everyone just assumes Damar Hamlin is getting the award. You absolutely should never lay -500 on just about anything, let alone a futures bet. So, let’s operate under the assumption this award will go to the player who performs the best following an injury or a down year.

Last season, Geno Smith rightfully won the award despite not being hurt the previous season. What he “came back from” was being written off after just two years as a starter and nearly a decade as a backup.

In 2012, Philip Rivers won the award by “coming back” from being really bad in 2011. Similarly, Russell Wilson at +2000 fits that criteria. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last season but has a quality offense around him and an offensive-minded head coach in Sean Payton to help right the ship. Wilson may very well just be done, but if he can return to pre-2022 form, he’s worth the long odds.

BJ: Damar Hamlin (-500) is the odds-on favorite, and it’s not even close. Nor should it be. Coming back from a near-death on-the-field event with the entire world watching . . . there’s no equivalent.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Sleepers and Longshots

Fallica: In any other year, John Metchie III (+3000) would be a lock if he makes a return from battling Leukemia. If Hamlin doesn’t return and Metchie does, it could be just as automatic.

Bearman: The Jags made a late-season run last year to the AFC South title and upset the Chargers in the playoffs. This year, they added Calvin Ridley (+3500) from the Falcons. One of the better receivers in the game, Ridley returns from a year-long suspension and should be a perfect fit for the growing offense.

Katz: I know this is cheating, but there are three plausible long shots that caught my eye. First, Matthew Stafford at +3000. Stafford dealt with injuries last season and was even mulling over retirement. This is still a quarterback just two years removed from throwing 41 touchdowns and winning a Super Bowl. He still has Cooper Kupp. Maybe he’s got one more run in him.

Second, Calvin Ridley at +3500. Ridley missed all of last season due to a gambling suspension, wasn’t very good in 2021, and last year, wrote a really moving article for The Players’ Tribute about mental health. If he can return to his 2020 form with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, he definitely has a shot.

Finally, for a super longshot that I don’t actually believe will happen, but maybe: Michael Thomas at +6500. Thomas hasn’t been able to stay on the field since 2019. It’s now 2023, and he’s over 30. In all likelihood, Thomas’ body has betrayed him, and it’s just over. But what if he can put together one more monster season? Unlikely? Yes. But if he does, Thomas checks every box for this award.

BJ: Regardless of whether you believe the suspension leveled on Ridley (+3500) was too harsh, there’s no denying that the Jaguars engineered an absolute steal by buying low and keeping him on stand-by. Now, after nearly two years away from the game, Ridley’s ready to be unleashed in an offense that’s only getting better, led by a quarterback who might soon join the ranks of the elites.

Recent Risers and Fallers

We’ve seen a handful of risers recently when it comes to the 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. The most prominent is Hamlin, who opened anywhere between +200 to +500 but has since moved into being “odds on” to win the award.

Hamlin’s odds still vary from place to place, but not many have him listed at plus odds at this point. The rise in his likelihood to win the award came when Hamlin was cleared for NFL action and then partook in offseason work with the Bills.

The “biggest” riser over the last few months is QB Sam Darnold. He’s moved dramatically from being outside the +5000 range to sitting around +3000 at most sportsbooks. The rise came courtesy of signing with the San Francisco 49ers, where he joins a QB room surrounded in question marks with Brock Purdy and Trey Lance.

In contrast to Hamlin’s rise, many of the other close favorites have seen their odds fall in recent weeks. Tua Tagovailoa remains second in the overall betting market for many sportsbooks but has seen his odds more than double in the last couple of months. That has been the same story for Russell Wilson, Cooper Kupp, and Breece Hall.

Who Is the Favorite To Win Comeback Player of the Year?

We have a clear favorite in Hamlin atop the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. Hamlin opened as the favorite and, as we discussed in our risers section, moved further clear of the field when it became evident he would have a legitimate shot to play in 2023.

The story surrounding Hamlin and his cardiac arrest in Cincinnati on Jan. 2, 2023, transcended the game. The moment itself and the events that followed were widely covered both nationally and internationally. Much like when Alex Smith returned from nearly having his leg amputated to play again in the NFL, the performance on the field is not as important as simply the fact that Hamlin could even step foot on a football field again.