Calling all bettors! Odds have been released for the opening week of the upcoming NFL season. Hey, we know it’s early. Some might say very early. But it’s never too early to start thinking about the best approach for wagering on these contests. Here’s a rundown of the betting lines for each contest, as well as our favorite NFL Week 1 predictions for the upcoming 2023 season. Betting analysts B.J. Rudell and Jason Katz give you thoughts on all 16 games and their best bets and predictions for Week 1.
All odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 1 Lines
Early predictions require early betting lines. So without further ado, here are the point spreads for all 16 Week 1 contests, beginning with a scintillating Thursday Night Football opening kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The defending Super Bowl champions versus one of the league’s trendiest underdogs. Also, a good indicator of whether Detroit’s defensive improvements these last two offseasons will help make them a frontrunner for the NFC North title.
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tennessee Titans
Three years ago, the Saints were one of several favorites to win the Super Bowl. Two years ago, the Titans earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Now both squads are trying to maintain relevance, anchored on offense by seasoned veterans.
Rudell best bet: Saints -3
As you’ll see shortly, Katz and I disagree on this one. For the past few months, I’ve strongly believed that the Titans will trade Derrick Henry by midseason. And depending on how Will Levis fares in camp, we might even see this franchise cash out on Henry this summer, opting instead to start over ahead of the 2024 Draft.
Regardless, Tennessee will have a tough time winning seven games this year, and while the Saints have their own issues, they possess a defense that might just be better than the Titans’, as well as a more well-rounded offense, thanks to the arrival of Derek Carr. New Orleans should win by at least a touchdown.
Katz best bet: Titans +3
Consider all the negativity surrounding the Titans this season, including talks of Ryan Tannehill being gone, as well as reports that Will Levis could take over sooner rather than later if the Titans get off to a slow start.
I imagine the Saints will be a heavy public play laying only a field goal at home in Week 1. The Titans may very well end up being a bad team, but I think they start the season 1-0 with a road win over New Orleans.
Baltimore Ravens (-8) vs. Houston Texans
The drama surrounding the Ravens’ offseason has subsided. They have the personnel to go far . . . as long as they stay healthy. Meanwhile, Houston finally has a youthful core to feel great about. How quickly can C.J. Stroud acclimate to the league?
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
If you took a season off from the NFL and are now just returning, this point spread might seem like a typo. But the Jaguars are legitimate contenders to reach the AFC Championship Game, while the Colts — like the Texans — are hoping their new franchise QB is as good as advertised.
Washington Commanders (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals started the 2021 season 7-0. Fortune has not been kind to them ever since, and it’s quite possible that Colt McCoy will be forced to start at QB while Kyler Murray recovers from last year’s ACL tear. Meanwhile, Washington will finally get to see if Sam Howell might be their long-term answer at quarterback.
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
What a matchup, which might be billed as Bijan Robinson versus Bryce Young. Both franchises are trying to ascend in the wake of the depleted Buccaneers.
Rudell best bet: Falcons -1.5
Anything Desmond Ridder can give Atlanta in Game 1 will be gravy. The same goes for Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Facing a beatable Carolina team with a rookie QB and limited offensive playmakers, I like the Falcons’ odds of running at will, led of course by Bijan Robinson.
If Bryce Young had DJ Moore, I’d think differently. But then again, if he had Moore, the Panthers probably would be favored.
Minnesota Vikings (-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of Tampa Bay, they’re trying to patch together a playoff team after losing Tom Brady to retirement. Can Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask step up?
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Minnesota, meanwhile, is trying to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke — and might have to do it without longtime starting RB Dalvin Cook.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Who will start at QB for the Niners? This point spread might change a lot in the next three months. For now, it reflects some uncertainty surrounding the Niners, and perhaps some bullishness that Kenny Pickett, George Pickens, and the rest of the young Steelers offense could take a huge step forward.
Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
A fitting opening-weekend matchup between two 2022 underperformers. The Broncos will try to get off on the right foot, hoping that Russell Wilson was worth the steep cost.
The Raiders, on the other hand, have the playmakers to do damage. But can Jimmy Garoppolo step up at quarterback?
Katz best bet: Raiders +3
There’s no denying how massively the Broncos upgraded at head coach, going from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton. But as much as I want to believe in Payton, I truly think Russell Wilson is just done. He’s almost 35 years old, and we’ve never seen a mobile QB remain effective beyond age 32/33.
If anyone can be the outlier, it’s Wilson. But the Raiders are being discounted a bit too much here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
We don’t yet know where Joe Mixon will fit into this offense, given his off-the-field legal issues. But for now, we should expect Cleveland to throw everything they have at their division rivals, backed by one of the most underrated running backs of his generation, as well as a quarterback with high expectations that might be tough to meet.
Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
How many people predicted last summer that the defending champion Rams would finish with the worst record of any defending champion in NFL history, while the seemingly lowly Seahawks would reach the postseason? This game should be fierce.
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
The last undefeated team of 2022 meets the last franchise to go undefeated in the regular season. And as strange as it sounds, this could be a preview of Super Bowl 58. For the Patriots, much hinges on their highly questionable QB situation.
Katz best bet: Eagles -3.5
For this one, perhaps I’m allowing myself to be suckered. The Eagles laying only 3.5 against what projects to be a bottom-five team? If the Patriots keep this close, more power to them. There’s just such a massive gap in talent here.
This feels like one of those lines where if these teams met later in the season, it would be Eagles -7. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if this line closed at around -6.
Chicago Bears (-1) vs. Green Bay Packers
How quickly these franchises have switched places. After three decades of seeing Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers at the helm of Green Bay’s offense, the Packers are starting over with Jordan Love. Meanwhile, few teams have improved as dramatically these past nine months as the Bears.
Rudell best bet: Bears -1
The Bears should be favored by 8+ points in this one. With all respect to Jordan Love, I don’t see how his transition to starter goes smoothly, at least at the outset. Presumably, he’ll lean heavily on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and presumably, Chicago will anticipate this and force Love to win through the air. That’s a recipe for a Bears victory, thanks in large part to an ascending offense.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins
Were the Dolphins wise to draft Tua Tagovailoa three years ago, or should they have gone with Justin Herbert? It’s a perennial question, and the answer might become clearer than ever after this season.
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But first, a Week 1 faceoff that could have dramatic repercussions by Week 18.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2)
One of the most intriguing Week 1 matchups. Last year, this game would have featured Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. But currently, Barkley’s status is up in the air, and Elliott is a free agent. A lot could change with this point spread by August.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Will Aaron Rodgers finish his first season in New York as the greatest Jets QB of all time? It’s possible. It’s also possible that his best years are well behind him. The NFL was wise to put this contest on Monday night. There are more storylines than players.
