As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. Here are predictions for some top fantasy football busts in 2023 based on current ADPs generated from FantasyPros.

2023 Fantasy Football Busts

Every year at every position, there are busts. Last season, Justin Herbert was the preseason QB3. He finished as the overall QB11 across 17 games. While that’s only an eight-spot difference, in fantasy drafts, that’s like investing a third-round pick on someone who produces seventh-round value.

Of course, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Those who drafted consensus No. 1 pick Jonathan Taylor felt the pain. Deebo Samuel didn’t come close to warranting his near-elite projections.

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Sometimes it’s about injuries. Other times it’s simply about regression. And occasionally, players struggle on both counts.

Regardless of the reasons, there are ways to calculate which players are higher-probability bust candidates. With that in mind, here are some of the riskiest fantasy investments — guys who realistically could bust relative to their ADP.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Many signs point to Josh Allen running less in 2023. Head coach Sean McDermott understands that Allen is taking too many hits when he runs downfield. Even last year, McDermott expressed hope that Allen would run less. Allen gets it, acknowledging that after taking the most hits of his career during these past two campaigns, he “can’t continue” to play that physically.

Will his rushing prowess grind to a halt? Of course not. But the additions of RB Damien Harris and TE Dalton Kincaid speak volumes about Buffalo’s 2023 plans. Last year, Allen led all quarterbacks in red-zone rushing attempts, accounting for 30% of Buffalo’s carries inside the opposing 20. Buffalo RBs were near the league’s bottom in carries.

There will be adjustments. The biggest question is how much these adjustments will lower Allen’s ceiling. A case could be made that he’ll make up for it through the air. But I don’t see that happening. With nearly 30% of his 2022 fantasy production coming on the ground, regression is coming.

I believe it will result in at least an 18% decline in fantasy points per game, which could effectively push him outside the top five. Given how early fantasy managers are drafting him (frequently in the second round), he’s headed toward bust status.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Hopefully, at least some of these predictions will appear to be head-scratchers. If they were obvious, then the market wouldn’t be so bullish about their 2023 prospects.

To me, Austin Ekeler seems like a clear-as-day bust candidate. Yes, the preseason RB2 is playing for a long-term contract. But let’s not overstate the significance of this motivation. While Ekeler is one of the best running backs of this current decade — and while he might be the best undrafted running back in NFL history — he has almost nowhere to go but down.

The 28-year-old earned a career-high 326 touches last season, including the playoffs. He enjoyed two monster games against the Browns and Rams. He compiled only 655 rushing yards in his other 16 contests, accounting for 3.4 yards per carry.

His broken-tackle rate on rushing attempts plummeted to one per 40.8 carries. His previous career-worst mark was one per 15.8 the year before. And while his yards before contact were a career-high 2.6 per carry, his yards after contact were a career-worst 1.9.

Whether because of the physical demands of increased annual workloads or receiver injuries that enabled defenders to stack the box more, or any other realistic factor, the facts are clear: Despite an incredible 2022 fantasy campaign, Ekeler took a step back.

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This offseason, the Chargers finally found a high-ceiling wideout (Quentin Johnston) to pair with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. We might expect the improving Joshua Kelley to play a more active role in the backfield, keeping Ekeler fresher for a potential postseason run.

As a result, Ekeler is a longshot to hit 250+ touches. And after averaging a whopping 19 touchdowns in each of the last two years — accounting for 32% of his fantasy production — he’s a risky bet to hit 10 this season. Nine of his last 11 scores have come from the 3-yard line or closer. Expect others to get more involved near the goal line, limiting the number of hits Ekeler has to take during the regular season.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

I wrote last summer that Cooper Kupp was overvalued, thanks to a higher-than-normal injury risk and troubling reports of tendinitis for Matthew Stafford.

Still, I didn’t expect him to come close to leading all WRs in fantasy points per game. And that’s why he’s still among the elite, with a WR4 ADP that suggests he’ll pick up where he left off before getting hurt last year.

But consider that he’ll turn 30 this month. He’s endured two season-ending injuries in his last five campaigns. Stafford is clearly a post-prime quarterback who cannot realistically recapture the magic of 2021.

Kupp thrived last year because Stafford was good enough and because the all-world receiver had virtually no competition. L.A. probably isn’t a playoff-caliber team. They’ll want to see what they have in rookie Puka Nacua and former second-round pick Tutu Atwell. And with Van Jefferson entering the final year of his rookie contract, assuredly the Rams are eyeing whether to re-sign him.

The Rams are likely playing more for 2024 and 2025 than for 2023. If they plan to keep Kupp for the duration of his extensive contract, then there will be no good reason to overwork him late in the season. Similarly, injuries that he might have played through in 2021 could sideline him this year.

It’s a strange season for the Rams. Kupp is easily their best offensive asset. At the same time, if they find themselves with a 3-8 record in November, they’ll be hard-pressed to keep putting inordinate weight on a wideout who’s owned more than $65 million after this season and who carries a dead-cap hit of $36.6 million in 2024 … when they’ll probably need Kupp to step up more as this franchise makes another push for legitimacy.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

I drafted George Kittle in my league last summer, buying low on his preseason injury news. At his best, he can be the No. 2 fantasy TE — as he proved last year.

But there are too many warning signs to ignore. Entering his age-30 campaign, and with an injury history that puts his realistic over/under for games played at around 14.5, Kittle needs a lot of things to break right to hit his TE4 ADP.

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Consider that he averaged 8.5 targets per game in 2018. In each successive year, his target average has shifted to 7.6 (2019), 7.9 (2020), 6.7 (2021), and a career-low 5.7 last season.

There’s no doubt that Kittle is still one of the Niners’ best weapons. But he frequently took a backseat. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk remain offensive anchors. Jauan Jennings isn’t going anywhere, and the young Danny Gray could take another step forward.

Then there’s rookie TE Cameron Latu. Apparently, San Francisco wasn’t satisfied with Ross Dwelley as the backup. Latu battled injuries at Alabama, which seemingly impacted his draft stock. But the Niners thought highly enough of him to snag the TE in the third round.

Notably, six of Kittle’s 11 scores last season came in the four games Samuel missed. A highly inexperienced QB leaned on his most experienced pass catcher, and it worked.

That’s not easily replicable in 2023. As the No. 4 or No. 5 offensive option, his ceiling is too low to rank him in the top five. Whether because of injuries or regression or both, Kittle probably won’t finish in the top eight.