The Denver Broncos‘ 2022 season could hardly have gone any worse. After making what was considered a franchise-altering trade for Russell Wilson, the former Seahawks quarterback posted the worst campaign of his NFL career and may already be a sunk cost — even though his five-year, $245 million extension hasn’t even kicked in yet.

Meanwhile, Nathaniel Hackett appeared woefully out of his depth as Denver’s head coach. Schematic issues and game management problems contributed to the Broncos’ collapse, and Hackett joined an ignominious list of head coaches fired before the conclusion of their first season in charge.

Moving from Hackett to Sean Payton represents about as significant an improvement as an NFL team could manage in an offseason. But can Payton turn the Broncos back into a contender in 2023?

Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Denver Broncos’ 2023 NFL Season

After finishing 23rd in scoring in 2021, the Broncos’ offense ranked dead last in points in 2022, an unthinkable result following the Wilson trade. But adding a future Hall of Famer as head coach could help things get back on the right track.

Sean Payton Turns Russell Wilson’s Career Around

There was no indication that Wilson’s career was about to fall off a cliff, but that’s exactly what happened last season. After ranking as a top-10 quarterback by nearly every metric with the Seahawks in 2021, Wilson looked like an entirely different signal-caller in Hackett’s Broncos offense.

Wilson finished 27th among 31 qualifiers in QBR, ranking ahead of only Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, and Baker Mayfield. He was 26th in expected points added per dropback and 23rd in adjusted net yards per attempt.

Sacks have always been an issue for Wilson, and that trend continued in 2022. He tied Justin Fields with 55 sacks and ranked behind only the Bears QB in sack rate.

There were signs that the old Wilson was starting to re-emerge near the end of last season. He tossed three touchdowns in two of his final four games and managed a QBR of at least 55.0 in three of his last five contests.

“I do feel like the last couple of weeks we saw a little bit more of what we were expecting and accustomed to,” Payton said at his introductory press conference. “I think the No. 1 job for us as coaches is evaluating our players. What are the things they do really well? Let’s try to put them in those positions. That’s the starting point.”

In Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and rookie Marvin Mims, Wilson has weapons to take advantage of in the passing game. But Payton could aim to help Wilson by taking items off his plate and focusing on Denver’s rushing attack, where the club ranked just 26th in efficiency a season ago.

Javonte Williams is trending toward being available for Week 1 after suffering a knee injury in 2022, while the Broncos also added veteran back Samaje Perine. Perhaps more important, Denver invested significant resources up front by signing right tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Ben Powers to multi-year deals.

Wilson doesn’t have to morph into vintage Drew Brees in order for the Broncos’ offense to be successful under Payton, but he has to improve upon last year’s showing. If that happens, Denver could be a viable playoff contender in the AFC — depending on how their defense holds up.

Denver’s Defense Remains Dominant Under Vance Joseph

While the Broncos’ offense cratered last season, their defense remained elite for most of the year. Ejiro Evero was a revelation as the club’s coordinator, but Payton wasn’t able to keep him from leaving for the Panthers. Instead, Denver hired former Cardinals DC Vance Joseph, who will return to the Broncos four years after being fired as the team’s head coach.

Joseph, like Evero, will run a 3-4 front, but Denver’s coverage schemes could be altered next season. Speaking to reporters in early June, safety Justin Simmons indicated the Broncos’ defensive system is still being finalized.

“I think a lot of that is still being ironed out,” Simmons said. “It’s hard. You’ve got a lot of guys that have been in a certain system one year, and then VJ is obviously really good at what he does. So I think all of that is still being ironed out, and we’ll kind of keep being ironed out as we head into camp as well.”

Defensive performance is typically difficult to project from year to year, and there’s no guarantee that the Broncos can remain a top-10 unit under Joseph. But they have the pieces in place — if everything breaks right.

Simmons and cornerback Patrick Surtain II are among the best at their respective positions in the secondary. Denver traded Bradley Chubb at last year’s deadline, but they still have Randy Gregory, Baron Browning, and new addition Frank Clark to generate pressure up front, while free agent signee Zach Allen can affect the pocket from the trenches.

Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Denver Broncos’ 2023 NFL Season

Payton is viewed as the Broncos’ savior, but improved results might take more than one season. What could go wrong for Denver in 2023?

Jarrett Stidham Is the Broncos’ QB By December

The worst-case scenario for the Broncos is that Wilson is totally cooked. Wilson appeared to be completely out of his element for most of last season, and while it’s fair to assign a lot of the blame to Hackett, there’s also a chance that Wilson won’t thrive as he approaches 40 years old in the mold of Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

We saw Wilson clash with Pete Carroll and Seattle’s numerous offensive coordinators on plenty of occasions during his run with the Seahawks, and he’s been accused of freelancing. It’s possible that Wilson doesn’t mesh with Payton’s offensive system, which would leave the Broncos in a precarious position.

This offseason, Denver signed Jarrett Stidham to a two-year, $10 million deal that made him the fourth-highest-paid backup quarterback in the NFL. If Wilson struggles during the first half of the season, the Broncos could potentially turn to Stidham — if only for financial reasons.

Wilson’s 2024 base salary is already fully guaranteed, but his 2025 salary ($37 million) is currently guaranteed for injury only. If Wilson looks as bad during the early portion of the season as he did in 2022, Denver won’t be able to risk keeping him on the field, where he could suffer an injury and lock in his compensation for 2025.

If everything goes south, the Broncos could theoretically cut Wilson after this year. They’d take on $35.4 million in dead money by using a post-June 1 designation and wouldn’t realize any cap savings, but they’d be saving themselves plenty of cash and cap down the road.

Injuries Hit Again, and Denver Can’t Overcome Them

Denver was hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL last season. The Broncos led the league in adjusted games lost to injuries in 2022, according to Football Outsiders, and their offense was hit especially hard.

Patrick missed the entire season after tearing his ACL, while Williams was sidelined starting in Week 5. Denver’s offensive line was decimated, as left tackle Garett Bolles and center Lloyd Cushenberry III both missed significant time. And on defense, Gregory and cornerback Ronald Darby were both unavailable for much of the year.

These injury problems could continue into 2023. Gregory has never completed a full slate of games during his NFL career, while fellow pass rusher Browning is already dealing with a knee issue and might not be ready for the start of the season. Meanwhile, Williams has been limited to begin the offseason.

The Broncos have added more depth this year, but they could still have problems if one of their key offensive linemen or defensive backs suffer an injury.