After a disastrous end to the 2022 season that included a back injury to star wide receiver Mike Williams that came in a meaningless Week 18 game and blowing a 27-point lead in the AFC Wild Card Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Chargers could’ve made sweeping changes across the organization. The most notable change was the addition of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore after he was fired from Dallas.

With that in mind, we dive into what the best and worst-case scenarios are for the Chargers in 2023.

Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Los Angeles Chargers’ 2023 NFL Season

The Chargers, never known for having good injury luck and timely playmaking throughout the history of the franchise since joining the NFL from the AFL, have rarely reached its best-case scenario.

Once again, this is a talented team that has all of the talent necessary to win at the highest level. Things could’ve gone awry this offseason after Austin Ekeler asked for a trade and cap limitations created discomfort, but the Chargers held steady.

Los Angeles’ win total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 9.5, and they’re -120 to miss the playoffs. Considering the Chargers have the eighth-hardest schedule in the league, they have to be sharp in order to survive. They produced a point differential of only seven points last year despite winning 10 games.

Kellen Moore Spices up the Chargers’ Offense

Moore helped mold a Dallas Cowboys offense that was among the most productive in the NFL. Though Dallas didn’t have the flashy play designs that we’ve seen the very top offenses have, the unit was solid and did well to overcome a struggling quarterback and surrounding cast that had issues with injuries. After seeing Joe Lombardi fail to evolve their own offense for two years, the Chargers added Moore to get the most out of Justin Herbert.

Herbert, who is progressing on a long-term deal with the team, suffered two significant injuries in 2022. A rib and shoulder injury didn’t stop him from finishing second in the NFL in passing yards and third in completion rate. But despite the love for Herbert’s raw numbers, there still feels like there’s meat on the bone for him to improve.

Moving the offense into more shotgun and spread looks might be the answer. Moore is “excited” to work with Ekeler, and he showed he can maximize someone with Ekeler’s unique talents throughout his time with Tony Pollard in Dallas. Pollard earned a 21.8% target share as a receiver when he was on the field from 2019-2022, and Ekeler can do even more as the NFL’s best receiving back.

In the team’s best-case scenario, Keenan Allen and Williams will be healthy, and first-round rookie Quentin Johnston will be ready to provide splash plays in Year 1. Staley felt Johnston was the best player on the field against Kansas State, Michigan, and Georgia, and if he was right, then Johnston will be a very good player immediately.

Adding variety to the passing game and improving the Chargers’ woeful run game are two key areas where the NFL’s 13th-best scoring offense has to improve. The Chargers have the talent on offense to win a Super Bowl, but now they need to perform like it.

Brandon Staley Unlocks the Defense

There was an interesting moment after Week 14 in 2022 when the Chargers seemed to crack the code that was the Miami Dolphins offense. Despite his defenses ranking 29th and 21st in scoring in his two seasons with the team, Staley was lauded by media members for his schematic prowess. Staley did well in previous stops, but the Chargers have been overwhelmed on a consistent basis since he took the job in 2021.

That has to change in 2023.

Adding linebacker Eric Kendricks and drafting two Day 2 defenders in Tuli Tuipulotu and Daiyan Henley can help bolster one of the NFL’s worst run defenses. Third-year cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. also offered optimism that cornerback J.C. Jackson will return from a dislocated kneecap that prematurely ended an abysmal debut season with the franchise. Both the top-end talent and the depth of the unit have improved since 2022.

Especially if Jackson returns and contributes in any form in 2023, the Chargers have an impressive defensive unit on paper. Staley has to guide the unit to be steadier and more competent against playoff-caliber opponents.

That includes smaller storylines like getting more out of Khalil Mack, who Staley has praised for his leadership even when his performance was uneven in 2022.

The Chargers were no better than the middle of the pack in defensive scoring rate, turnovers forced, or points and yards allowed despite benefitting from the fifth-best starting field position.

Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Chargers’ 2023 NFL Season

The Chargers have one of the most dramatic recent histories of any NFL team. Even last year, their devastating 31-30 loss to the Jaguars left everyone in shock. One would think that the franchise can’t suffer another instance of a 24-7 run that causes their season to end, but the Chargers have seen how a worst-case scenario can play out in the most unexpected ways.

Justin Herbert Is Good but Not Great

Some of the most prominent media analysts love Herbert beyond reason. There’s a lot to like there, including a tremendous arm and his incredible improvement since playing at Oregon. However, there are areas where Moore has to get more from Herbert, or else he’s at risk of being a “solid but not good enough” quarterback in an incredibly competitive AFC.

Some of his shortcomings may have to do with playing with shockingly injury-prone playmakers. The Chargers likely erred in restructuring Allen’s contract to open cap space and extending Williams when neither can be reliably available in any given week. Allen missed seven games, and Williams missed four in 2022, and the latter wasn’t seen at OTAs.

Williams’ future may have played into the Chargers’ decision to draft Johnston and fourth-rounder Derius Davis where they did. Backups Joshua Palmer and Jalen Guyton failed to be consistent difference-makers when they played, and the future is rapidly approaching for the Chargers at receiver. It doesn’t help that Herbert hasn’t benefitted from a decent run game.

There are areas Herbert has to improve. He ranked only 25th in yards per attempt, 15th in red-zone completion percentage, 25th in deep-ball accuracy rating, 28th clean pocket accuracy rating, and 17th in completion percentage against man coverage. The cumulative picture of his stats shows a player who takes a lot of checkdowns and hits enough deeper passes to just barely offset resembling a game manager more than an elite passer.

His fourth year can bring minor improvements and see Herbert be more impactful when it matters the most. But if it doesn’t, and Moore’s more aggressive offense brings out the worst tendencies of Herbert, then Lombardi’s offense will have been intentional as the team looked to mitigate the QB’s weaknesses.

The Injury Bug Returns

Every team’s worst-case scenario is being ravaged by injuries. But the Chargers have their own unique history of injuries, and they’re relying on several of the same individuals who haven’t been consistently available. That includes Allen and Williams, but also Joey Bosa and Derwin James.

Bosa, coming off a groin tear that required surgical repair, is a potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year. James is arguably the most dangerous secondary weapon in the NFL. It’s not a shocker that when one of those two players is off the field, the defense drops in effectiveness, but a better season from Mack and Jackson can go a long way in helping them tread water if they do miss time.

The window of this version of the Chargers’ core is almost closed. Set to be around $50 million over the cap next year, the team can get out of the $30 million-plus cap hits of Mack, Williams, and Allen in 2024. Jackson and Kendricks can also be released to open more space.

There are worse situations than rebuilding on the fly around a talent like Herbert’s, but the Chargers have to win now or enter a new phase around him before they ever accomplished anything notable.