There is little debate that Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs will go early in the 2023 NFL Draft. Yet, which landing spots are the most frequent for Gibbs based on PFN mock draft simulations? After diving into the user data, we can look at where Gibbs is ending up and how he will fit, plus the expectations for fantasy football in 2023.
Jahmyr Gibbs Landing Spots Based on MDS Data
Each percentage is based on user picks for that team alone, making them independent from each other and giving us the percentage of times Gibbs was picked by users for a specific team and separate from simulations.
- Dallas Cowboys: 2.1% (ADP 40.9)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 1.9% (ADP 40.4)
- Miami Dolphins: 1.7% (ADP 53.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals: 1.4% (ADP 48.1)
- Arizona Cardinals: 1.2% (ADP 40.8)
One thing people will quickly pick up on is that some teams are naturally associated with a position rather than a player this time of year. With rosters set — for the most part — it’s easier to see which teams might look to upgrade positions more than others.
Regarding Gibbs, we see a lot of similarities between him and Bijan Robinson regarding landing spots, as Dallas and Philadelphia are amongst the highest percentages of selections.
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There is no debate that the running back position has taken a significant hidden value in recent years. From a fantasy perspective especially, we need to readjust what draft capital means for each position. Given the modern landscape, second-round draft capital for a running back is about as high as we see and is the equivalent of first-round draft capital for a receiver.
So, as we break down some of these landing spots that MDS users have selected for Gibbs, consider this when looking at the expected value in upcoming rookie drafts and the 2023 fantasy football season.
Dallas Cowboys
If you were to ask Jerry Jones what his preference would be, I don’t think Robinson would be making it out of Texas. However, drafters are still addressing the need for an additional starting running back following the release of Ezekiel Elliott.
Gibbs landing in Dallas would be a fantastic pairing with Tony Pollard, who was clearly a better running back last year, finishing as the RB7 in contrast to Elliott (RB21).
While I do think Gibbs is a highly talented running back (RB2 in the class currently), and the comparisons to both Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones are warranted, I’m not sure he would become the lead back in Dallas in 2023, given what we have seen out of Pollard and the trust they have in him. After all, you only release Elliott if you are sure of the fallback options that you already have, as the draft is unpredictable.
Pollard is a capable receiver, recording 78 receptions and over 700 yards during the last two years. Last season, Dallas targeted running backs on only 15.6% of their attempts, the seventh-lowest rate in the league.
Given that targets, compared to carries, generate roughly two times the expected fantasy points per opportunity, Gibbs not recording the lion’s share of the targets in an offense that is already somewhat limited in its attempt to the position might give fantasy managers a bit of a sour taste in their mouth come this time next year.
From a dynasty perspective, I would be all-in on Gibbs in Dallas should the MDS data be correct, as Pollard is playing on the franchise tag, and Gibbs would be the No. 1 RB from 2024 onward. And we know this can be one of the better-producing positions in the league for fantasy.
Although Pollard is expected to be ready for the start of the 2023 season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibbs is quickly ingrained into the offense. Even in what will be a committee, Gibbs should produce RB2 value for fantasy this season but should be treated as an RB1 for dynasty.
Philadelphia Eagles
Of the landing spots users picked for Gibbs the most, the Eagles might be my favorite choice.
Despite telling managers not to draft him, Miles Sanders finished last season as the RB13 with 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns while also coming in the top five in carries inside the 10-yard line. While Sanders hit free agency, Philadelphia signed Rashaad Penny during the offseason and has been viewed as one of the biggest winners for fantasy.
The only issue for Penny has been health. When he’s received 12 or more carries in his career (10 games), Penny has seven 100+ yard outings and averaged 122 rushing yards on 16.5 carries with 1.1 touchdowns and 21.15 PPR points per contest.
He is also not someone who’s typically been targeted out of the backfield when active, with 27 career receptions in five seasons. Gibbs, however, is the best receiving back in the class. Watching Gibbs play behind a cheat code, which is the Eagles’ offensive line with a dynamic quarterback like Jalen Hurts, and in a creative offense, would be the dream for fantasy football.
If the Eagles were to select Gibbs in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, fantasy managers should start celebrating, as the long-term upside would place him as a top-eight running back in dynasty.
Miami Dolphins
I genuinely thought the Dolphins would be more active in the free agent running back class. It’s not like there weren’t any names. Sure, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs received franchise tags, but I thought they would’ve taken a shot on maybe David Montgomery or Miles Sanders. Perhaps the money didn’t work. Who knows.
Instead, Miami returned to what they knew in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Joining the team in Week 9, Wilson immediately saw a sizable role, averaging 10 carries for 49 yards from Week 9 through 18. During the same time, Mostert also averaged 10 carries for 55 yards. Each missed a game over this stretch but put up nearly identical numbers as the RB32 and RB33 in points per game.
But that’s not moving the needle in the NFL or fantasy circles. Miami is trying to keep up in what has quickly become one of the toughest divisions in football. Given their relatively small investment in both Wilson and Mostert, I can completely understand why drafters are mocking Gibbs to the dolphins.
Mike McDaniels is one of the most creative coaches out there and would be able to unlock Gibbs more than any other potential landing spots were likely to discuss. He transformed the San Francisco rushing attack and even gave us a few usable outings last year with subpar talent. Gibbs in Miami with Tua Tagoviola, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle would be like watching a Madden team. The PPR upside alone for Gibbs here is otherwordly.
Cincinnati Bengals
Are the Bengals ready to move away from Joe Mixon? That is the first obstacle we have to address here. Cincinnati signed him to a four-year, $48 million contract extension in September 2020, but he struggled to get it going early in 2022. Mixon was dead last in production compared to expected fantasy points between Weeks 1 through 8 as the RB19 in points per game.
But as the offensive line gelled, in his eight healthy games from Week 9 through 18, he was the RB6 at 17.7 PPR/g, finishing the season sixth in touches per game (19.5) and second in carries inside the 10-yard line (28) from Weeks 1-17. Still, he only scored five touchdowns. However, his receiving uptick was a significant boost, finishing with 690 receptions for 441 yards on 70 targets.
But there is still a path where Mixon doesn’t make the 2023 roster. Cincinnati would create $7.3 million in cap savings by cutting Mixon this spring and need to think about how they are going to pay Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, and Tee Higgins, which is not going to be easy for an ownership group with one of the smallest bank accounts in the league.
With Samaje Perine now with the Broncos, Cincinnati would be looking at Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams, who have a combined 90 touches in their six combined seasons. That is not going to cut it. In the second round, Gibbs would be a logical fit, and if it comes before any news on Mixon, it likely is a massive sign that he could be gone.
At 5’9″ and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role which is a concern of mine. With that said, he’d be the unquestioned No. 1 for the Bengals and would bring an explosive skill set to one of the league’s most dangerous offenses.
For fantasy, he’d have a top-12 outlook, but I could see the team utilizing Evans (5’11” and 219) in some short-area and goal-to-go situations, which will annoy managers more than help them.
Arizona Cardinals
If you could guarantee James Conner would be healthy, it would be a relatively safe bet he could put up elite numbers. The RB8 in 2021, Conner was the RB6 overall in his last eight games, averaging 19.8 PPR fantasy points per game (RB4) while playing over 90% of his team’s snaps in seven contests.
It was his show. But those same durability concerns were evident, and it took Conner off the field. For a team like Arizona, who lacked a No. 2, this meant an end to any semblance of an effective rushing attack. Gibbs would be the perfect complement to Conner’s power-rushing style. He is a dynamic slasher who does everything as smooth as silk and, given his consistent ability to make someone miss, becomes a massive weapon outside the numbers or in open space.
With Kliff Kingsbury gone (maybe in Thailand still) and Jonathan Gannon coming from Philadelphia to be the new head coach, I would expect more of an RBBC approach in 2023 for Arizona. That’s not a bad thing for Conner, who missed four games and left another three due to injury.
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But it also works well for Gibbs, who can be the change-of-pace RB while receiving the bulk of the passing work in an offense that could very well rely on its RBs with Kyler Murray working back from a torn ACL and questions swirling around DeAndre Hopkins.
Throw in TE Zach Ertz, who tore both his ACL and MCL, and Gibbs would be competing with Rondale Moore and Greg Dotrch for the No. 2/3 pass-catching role on the team.
Gibbs is a receiving weapon that can be deployed out wide or in the slot, allowing Arizona to utilize both Gibbs and Conner to maximize the talent on the field at any given time.
While the PPR upside would help his fantasy production, for 2023 at least, Gibbs would likely struggle to reach higher than low-end RB2/Flex value as Conner would receive not only the bulk of the carries but is a near lock to score when inside the 5-yard line. How many of those chances come up this year will be a different discussion entirely.