It would have been nice to see what Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown could’ve done had he not broken his foot after six weeks last season. Now the only game in town, can Brown finish as a top-24 fantasy football WR in 2023?

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Does Marquise Brown Have Top-24 Fantasy WR Upside?

Let’s start on a positive note. Brown certainly has the talent to finish inside the top 24. After all, we saw him do it in 2021 when he averaged 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR21.

That 2021 season was pretty much split down the middle, though. Brown averaged 18.8 ppg over the first half and 9.5 ppg over the second half. I wouldn’t call myself an optimistic person, but when looking at upside, it’s best to focus on the first half. First, we need to evaluate whether Brown can even do the job. Then we can assess how likely he is to do it.

The fact that Brown was able to average 18.8 ppg over an eight-game stretch speaks volumes. It establishes that despite being undersized at 5’9″, 166 pounds, Brown can be an NFL team’s WR1.

Just as important was Brown’s follow-up in 2022. After being traded to the Cardinals, Brown was set to serve as the stretch Z opposite dominant X DeAndre Hopkins. When Hopkins was slapped with a six-game suspension to open the season, Brown had to step up as the team’s WR1. And step up he did.

Over those first six weeks, Brown averaged 10.6 targets per game and 18.3 fantasy ppg. That marked back-to-back seasons with a meaningful stretch of games where Brown averaged over 18.0 ppg.

Unfortunately, Brown’s season took a turn after he broke his foot, costing him Weeks 7-11. When he returned in Week 12, not only was he the second guy behind Hopkins, but after just one game back, Kyler Murray tore his ACL.

As a result, Brown once again sputtered to the finish line, averaging an even worse 7.8 ppg over his final six games. I believe Brown’s back-to-back awful finishes have contributed to his depressed ADP.

We’ve already seen Brown not only a top-24 WR but a top-12 one. He just needs to find a way to sustain it over a full season.

Can Marquise Brown Finish in the Top 24 if Kyler Murray Doesn’t Return?

With Hopkins gone, Brown is now locked-in as the Cardinals WR1. And we know he can perform in the role. He has no target competition on the roster with the guys behind him the likes of Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal, and rookie Michael Wilson. There’s a very real chance Brown eclipses a 30% target share this season.

The biggest question mark is whether the volume will be enough with subpar quarterback play. As things currently stand, either Colt McCoy or rookie Clayton Tune will open the season as the Cardinals starting quarterback. We already know Brown’s splits without Murray. What we don’t know is how Brown would look without Murray if Hopkins wasn’t there. Well, we’re about to find out.

Following Hopkins’ release, I expected Brown’s ADP to spike. Surprisingly, it hasn’t. He remains around WR31. Even with McCoy or Tune under center, I have a hard time believing he won’t finish higher than his ADP.

Volume is king in fantasy football. Even if the quality of Brown’s targets isn’t good, there are going to be a lot of them. The Cardinals project to be the worst team in the NFL. That means a lot of trailing and a lot of throwing. Especially in PPR leagues, Brown could be a receptions monster this season, regardless of who plays quarterback.

How Likely Is Brown To Be a Top-24 Fantasy WR This Season?

I think Brown can finish inside the top 24, even if Murray doesn’t play at all. But what if he does? It sure looks like the Cardinals are tanking, but they’re paying Murray a lot of money to play football. If he’s ready to go by midseason, would the team really hold him out? I think they should, but the NFL is a business above anything else.

Murray will want to play, and his coaches will want him to play as well. We know what Brown and Murray sans Hopkins look like, and it is fantasy goodness.

My projections have Brown seeing 158 targets, catching 95 of them for 1,057 yards and 6.8 touchdowns. I have him at 14.1 ppg and finishing as the WR23.

I would consider Brown very likely to finish inside the top 24, with the potential to finish even higher if Murray returns or if Brown merely has an outlier touchdown season.

Even with backups, 10 touchdowns is firmly within Brown’s range of outcomes. Based on my projections, if Brown merely scores three more times, that would bump him from 14.1 ppg to 15.2 ppg, which would be around the WR15.

Ultimately, Brown is shaping up to be one of my most heavily drafted players (assuming I can pull it off). Fantasy managers should make him a priority in 2023 drafts.