In previous articles, I wrote about more general dynasty startup draft strategies. In those articles, I mentioned that deeper dives into more specific strategies would be forthcoming. Well, here we are. Let’s hone in on the Zero RB strategy and how you can apply it in dynasty fantasy football startup drafts.
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How To Thrive in a Draft Using the Zero RB Strategy
Zero RB is a risky yet potentially very beneficial strategy for dynasty startup drafts. What are the benefits (and risks) associated with ignoring running backs early in your draft?
What Is Zero RB?
Those of you who started playing fantasy football within the past decade or so did so in an era where wide receiver and running back value started to converge. That has coincided with the increased passing in the modern NFL.
Prior to the great quarterback boom of 2011, the foundation of every great fantasy team was the running back. When I first started playing fantasy football back in 2003, the Flex position was a nonstarter because any team who drafted three bell-cow RBs would be unstoppable. Running backs dominated the first two rounds of fantasy drafts and were the cornerstone of every great roster.
As the NFL moved away from the traditional reliance on power football, fantasy managers had to adapt. That led to Shawn Siegele coming up with the concept of Zero RB.
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In 2013, Siegele laid out what was, at the time, a radical draft strategy that involved drafting zero running backs.
Obviously, Zero RB doesn’t mean you literally don’t draft a single running back. The basic tenet of the strategy is to leverage the increasingly risky nature of running backs into a sizable advantage at wide receiver (and, to a lesser extent, tight end and quarterback).
Zero RB has spawned multiple derivatives over the years. But in its purest form, it involves not drafting your first RB until at least the sixth or seventh round. The goal is to load up on wide receivers as well as secure an elite tight end, quarterback, or both.
How To Implement Zero RB in a Dynasty Startup Draft
I’m not a fan of the Zero RB strategy in redraft, but that doesn’t mean I won’t ever do it. I just won’t go into a draft planning to go Zero RB. I believe it should be a strategy you pivot to based on how the draft goes.
In dynasty, it’s another story. Zero RB is very viable in a dynasty startup, especially if you’re planning on either punting Year 1 or going with a productive struggle approach.
How Zero RB and Punting Year 1 in a Dynasty Startup Mesh Together
Despite the converging values of wide receivers and running backs, the most valuable asset in fantasy football is the elite RB. In fact, one can argue it is even more valuable now than ever before because of how few there are.
Of course, finding one is easier said than done. Wide receivers are more reliable than running backs both in terms of longevity and year-to-year consistency. If your plan entering your dynasty startup draft is to tank the first season with the goal of putting together a juggernaut beginning in Year 2, Zero RB may be the way to go.
One of the main reasons building around WRs is a go-to dynasty strategy is their time at the top. Wide receivers can stay at their peak for much longer than running backs.
Typically peaking at around age 25, the average shelf life of a running back is only 3-4 years. The most elite running backs can produce at a top level from around ages 22-28.
Meanwhile, wide receivers start to peak around age 24 and often stay at or near their apex until age 29. More recently, we’ve seen the top receivers remain elite unto the first year or two of their 30s. Receivers are almost never as good as running backs are as rookies, but once a WR reaches that elite status, it’s possible to get a full decade’s worth of production. You’re simply not getting that from an RB.
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By loading up on wide receivers early, you can put together the nucleus of your dynasty roster and feel confident those players will still be around to provide you with value for years to come. Then, in Year 2, that’s when you add the running backs.
A big reason the Zero RB draft strategy works is because of our ability to project immediate production from rookie backs. If you’re punting Year 1, you’re planning on having a top 2-3 pick in your rookie draft the following season. There should be an RB available that can contribute right away.
Not every draft class has sure things at running back, but historically, the sure things hit a higher rate than the sure things at wide receiver. At the same time, you’ll already have a bunch of quality receivers because you focused on them in the early rounds of your dynasty startup. Even if you aren’t able to find running backs right away, you have time because of the longevity of wide receivers.
If you build around RBs and take a couple of years to find the WRs, your running backs will be nearing the end of their usable life by the time you do so, thus limiting the time your team can compete for a championship.
Zero RB is a very viable strategy that, if done right, can set you up to dominate for several years.
What Are the Risks of Using a Zero RB Strategy in a Dynasty Startup Draft?
Where dynasty differs from redraft most is in roster size. In dynasty, you’re likely drafting 25-30 players. In redraft, one of the most important aspects of the Zero RB strategy is the expectation that managers will constantly be shuffling running backs at the back of their roster. You’re expected to work the waiver wire, stream spot starters, take advantage of injuries, and find reliable fantasy starters during the season.
In dynasty leagues, that’s exceedingly difficult because the waiver wire is much more barren. Those RB3s that benefit from injuries that you rush to pick up in redraft leagues are already rostered. So, in dynasty, you need to already roster some of these players.
Make sure you’re drafting running backs in the later rounds with plausible upside. Avoid older RBs, and don’t draft floor players. You don’t need running backs that are locked into a role where they see a handful of carries and a reception or two. If a back doesn’t have the upside for a larger role, you have no use for him.
Focus on young running backs that are stuck behind an established starter. You want guys that can conceivably win a backfield either with performance or if the starter gets hurt/leaves the following season.
A Zero RB strategy in a dynasty startup draft can be very advantageous if done correctly. But it can also set your team back multiple seasons if things go awry.
Not everyone who implements this strategy will succeed. There’s inherent risk in everything about fantasy football. Zero RB is a high-upside strategy, but it has a low floor if you miss on the receivers or can’t find startable running backs.
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Regardless of what you decide to do, make sure you commit to it. Going half-in on any strategy is a surefire way to lose. You’re better off going all in on whatever you do, and if it fails, at least you’ll know you need to fully rebuild. There’s nothing worse in dynasty than having a team good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to win.
The Zero RB strategy is designed to ensure your team doesn’t get caught in fantasy purgatory. If you do it right, you could be a dominant force for years.
