One of the most important metrics that fantasy football draft managers need to understand is Average Draft Position (“ADP”) and how it can impact their draft. Knowing when a player is likely to come off the board is essential for draft preparation. As part of our Fantasy 101 series, what does ADP stand for, and how does it apply to fantasy football?

What Does ADP Mean in Fantasy Football?

Of all the fantasy abbreviations thrown at new managers, this is one might be the most important during the preseason. It’s a helping hand for novices and an essential market-value indicator for savvier managers.

Applying data from both mock and real drafts, websites compile individual picks to generate an ADP for nearly every player. As more drafts are completed, accuracy improves as “outlier picks” have less impact on ADP. An outlier might include one day when a third-string rookie RB gets a widely publicized, glowing report. “He might win the starting job,” or something to that effect.

So drafters that day/evening might lean more heavily towards that player, thinking they’ve snagged a rising talent. A few days later, if that news has been replaced by other news praising the No. 2 running back and reinforcing the starter’s entrenched role as the bell cow, then the hype surrounding the No. 3 rookie presumably would die down.

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As a result, managers likely would fade him at his inflated ADP, thus causing his ADP to drop in the ensuing days. At this point, he’s no longer an outlier. Conversely, if the buzz surrounding that RB3 continues growing, then the outlier phenomenon could solidify.

Isiah Pacheco in 2022 is a good example. A seventh-round pick, at first, he was expected to simply try to make the team as a backup. But the preseason hype led Pacheco’s ADP to rise to No. 2 among Chiefs running backs, behind only presumed starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire. There it remained, as Pacheco went from “outlier” to “the real deal” in the span of four to six weeks.

Using ADP, managers can attempt to predict when players could be drafted and whether they would be a reach at their current pick. Studying and understanding ADP also allows managers to develop a draft strategy. By paying attention to ADP, managers can target specific rounds or round ranges (e.g. “the first two rounds”) of a draft to target a position or player tier.

For example, this could be helpful when targeting a late-round QB, getting ahead of the RB dead zone, or finding WR-rich areas of a draft. Without ADP, fantasy football managers would be drafting blind with no sense of value when on the clock — and no sense of what opponents might do.

ADP Will Vary From Site to Site, Creating More Fantasy Value

Let’s use an example of how ADP can vary from site to site. Knowing the ADP on the site you are playing on can be a powerful tool in a manager’s belt. We’ll use Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy as an example.

Based on data culled from May 16, 2023, on FantasyData, Jeudy is the WR34 with an ADP of 74.5 overall. However, on DraftSharks, he’s the WR25. And on 4For4, he’s the WR23. The difference between snagging Jeudy in the middle of the fourth round or the mid-sixth round is substantial.

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ADP also can be used to find value in certain rounds and draft players you expect will outperform their ADP. ESPN lists Jeudy with an overall 69 ADP, meaning, on average, he’s coming off the board late in the seventh round in 10-team leagues. If you believe Jeudy will at least meet market expectations, and if you pick early in the seventh, then you can feel at least moderately confident about taking him then.

But if you’re extraordinarily bullish about Jeudy, in that you believe he’ll comfortably exceed expectations, then knowing his ADP can empower you to take him even a little earlier. As long as none of your opponents are comparably bullish, he’ll likely land on your roster.

ADP vs. ECR: What’s the Difference, and How Can Fantasy Managers Use Both?

ADP and ECR are two different fantasy metrics, but each tries to answer the same question: When should you draft Player X?

ADP is a specific representation of where each NFL player is being selected in fantasy football drafts. It’s based on drafts that have already taken place.

ECR, meanwhile, stands for “expert consensus ranking.” This represents a collection of rankings from industry experts that are mixed together to generate a consensus ranking. This composite depicts how industry analysts collectively value each player.

Using ECR means you’re not banking your entire draft strategy on a single person’s opinion, but rather on many analysts — sometimes 100 or more, depending on the website. Where ADP is what people are actually doing in drafts, ECR represents a suggestion. Expert rankings sometimes make up the cheat sheets you see managers print off and bring to drafts or the values you see on your favorite fantasy site.

Much like ADP, the broader the sample set, the less a single data point can skew the numbers. Moreover, by utilizing ADP and ECR in tandem, one can uncover where expectations align and diverge with actual drafting trends. At its core, this helps managers anticipate opponents’ next moves, paving the way to more successful drafting.