The narratives behind the NFL Coach of the Year betting odds are always intriguing, and 2023 is no different. The key, more so than many other awards, is about who leads their team to outperform expectations the most. Whether that be the 15-win team who was only projected for 11.5 wins or the nine-win team projected to win just a handful, the narrative is always the key.

In this article, we examine the odds for the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year, as well as provide predictions and potential longshots to consider from our team of analysts. The analysts providing the picks are PFN Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, and Betting and Fantasy Analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz. Additionally, we also have a Coach of the Year prediction from FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.

Live NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of June 19, 2023.

NFL Coach of the Year Predictions

Wingo: Usually, the Coach of the Year award goes to the team with the best record in the regular season or someone who turns the whole thing around. Sean Payton (+1000 at Caesars) has a real chance to be a difference-maker again. He made the Saints what they became, and now they’re back to being a laughing stock at the end of last season without him.

Fallica: The Saints have a lot going for them in terms of a bounce-back season — bad division, new QB, and a defense that played really well as the season went on last year. Four of the Saints’ losses in 2022 were by four points or fewer, including the incomprehensible loss at Tampa on Monday night.

So there was certainly a chance at a much better record. The early part of the schedule is very manageable, so if the Saints are sitting 4-2 or 5-1 after six games, everyone will notice. And 25-1 on Dennis Allen will be long gone.

BJ: What do you need to be Head Coach of the Year? For starters, a winning record. Only Jimmy Johnson (7-9 in 1990) had a losing record since the award began in 1957, and in fairness, he helped turn around a franchise that went 1-15 the year before.

Dan Campbell (+850) is the frontrunner for plenty of good reasons. He finished seventh in voting last year — with Detroit going 9-8 — but 8-2 in their final 10 games. An improved offense and defense makes the Lions great bets to win their first NFC North title in the division’s 21-year history.

Bearman: Last year, the Jaguars plotted along to a 4-8 start before winning the final five games and stealing the AFC South title, AND knocking off the Chargers in the Wild Card round.

It was much too late for Doug Pederson (+2200) to win COY by the time the turnaround happened, but the Jags should roll to the AFC South title this year. With an easy division and easy overall schedule, it’s not out of the question for the Jags to rack up 11-12 wins, which would put Pederson right in the conversation.

Katz: The Coach of the Year award doesn’t really go to the best coach. Rather, it goes to the coach who got his team to perform the most above expectation. That’s why Andy Reid, arguably the best coach in the NFL, has the longest odds.

With that in mind, give me Robert Saleh at +1500. The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the league and just went 7-10 last season. If Aaron Rodgers turns New York into a 10-win team and they make the playoffs, Saleh may very well get this award over coaches on teams that were expected to be good, like the aforementioned Reid or one of Zac Taylor or Sean McDermott.

NFL Coach of the Year Sleepers and Longshots

Wingo: Here’s a thought — we’re in the longest stretch in Super Bowl history without a team repeating. What if Kansas City pulls it off again? It might be a regular-season award, but if KC ends up at the top of the AFC with the one seed again with so much change, how do you not give it to Andy Reid (+5000)?

Bearman: With Lamar Jackson signed and back in the fold, the Ravens should be right there at the top of the AFC North again, competing with the Bengals and Browns. With healthy running backs, the offense should be back to explosive. If the Ravens do top the Bengals for the North title, they will be a top-three seed in the AFC, giving John Harbaugh (+3000) a legit shot at Coach of the Year.

BJ: Don’t count out Nick Sirianni (+3500), who arguably deserved to finish higher than fifth in last year’s voting. This year’s Eagles might be even better than last year’s. The team went 14-1 last season when Jalen Hurts started.

They’re good bets to finish 15-2 or better. They have three tough road games this year (Patriots, Chiefs, and Cowboys). If Philadelphia can win two of those three and take care of business elsewhere, Sirianni might get the accolades he deserves.

Katz: Given the choices, how do we not go with Andy Reid at +5000? This award rarely goes to coaches who are already established as great, but the path to Reid winning it isn’t all that unrealistic. The Chiefs, who possess the best quarterback to ever play (yeah, I said it), win 14+ games, while no other team wins more than 12.

In the absence of a clear Brian Daboll situation where a coach had his team severely outperform expectations, the voters throw it to Reid — who somehow hasn’t won this thing since 2002 — despite a full 10 years in Kansas City with a winning record, including three Super Bowl appearances, two wins, and five consecutive AFC Championship games at home.

Recent Risers and Fallers

There have been three really intriguing risers in terms of NFL Coach of the Year odds so far this offseason. The first is Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, who has risen to +1600 to take home the award. A big part of the reason for that is likely the uncertainty surrounding the NFC South.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are in rebuilding mode, while the New Orleans Saints could be in no man’s land if Derek Carr cannot give them a significant boost. If the Falcons take home the NFC South and Atlanta can get into double-digit win territory, with a seemingly soft strength of schedule, there is a chance Smith takes home this award.

The second big riser is Frank Reich at +2000, for almost all the same reasons as Smith in Atlanta. The NFC South is there for the taking, and whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bryce Young under center, taking the Panthers to a division title and the playoffs would be seen as a huge achievement for Carolina’s new head coach.

The other big riser has been Matt LaFleur. Rodgers’ departure to the Jets has left the perfect opportunity for LaFleur to prove himself as a head coach. The credit for his previous success as a head coach was always a little overshadowed by Rodgers’ presence. If LaFleur can steer a Jordan Love-led Green Bay Packers to a division title and the playoffs, he’ll have a great shot at winning Coach of the Year.

Who Is the Favorite To Win Coach of the Year?

It is not a massive surprise to see Dan Campbell (+850) as the favorite for Coach of the Year. The Detroit Lions finished like a steam train and only narrowly missed out on a playoff berth. The excitement around that second half, followed by an intriguing offseason, has left many excited about the Lions’ potential in 2023.

Narrowly behind Campbell is Sean Payton, who will be looking to turn both the Broncos’ fortunes and Russell Wilson’s seemingly fading career around. The intriguing potential narratives of both the Lions and Broncos should mean Campbell and Payton remain among the favorites all preseason.